#1 vs #1

The internet is full of “Dyer vs. Lattimore” game fodder this week. “The State” newspaper in Columbia, S.C. has an article by that title. Bleacher Report, ESPN’s SEC blog, and the Anniston Star feature articles with the same theme. The story lines wiggle between which running back was REALLY #1 coming out of high school, to what “might have been” had Lattimore chosen to team-up with Dyer at Auburn as opposed to choosing his home state Gamecocks. The buildup of these two kids facing off against one another is such a major theme for the Auburn-South Carolina football game this week that you’d think it was Rocky Balboa vs. Apollo Creed…….but which one is which?

Simply looking at the statistics, through the first three games the two backs compare as follows:

Mike Dyer: 39 attempts / 212 yards / 5.4 Yard Average / 1 touchdown
Marcus Lattimore: 70 attempts / 333 yards / 4.8 Yard Average / 5 touchdowns

What do these statistics tell us? On the surface, not very much. But just beneath the surface, they tell us a lot.

First of all, on the surface these statistics tell us that Lattimore is getting, and will get, more touches of the ball than Dyer. One had only to watch Carolina’s game with Georgia to see how Lattimore is fed the ball. For old-fashioned SEC aficionados, it felt very pre-1990’s…
And then Steve Spurrier came on the scene and (virtually) single handedly changed the college football landscape. He brought the fun and gun offense to Florida, won and won big with it, and his passing attack bred the offshoots found all around the country: Run and Shoot, West Coast, Spread, Pistol….

Which is why the “beneath the surface” story is so fascinating. For you see, it is that same Steve Spurrier who is now running the football as though he were taking a page out of Vince Dooley or Pat Dye’s playbook.
What changed? Well….Spurrier has a very good running back in Lattimore. AND, Spurrier still doesn’t completely trust quarterback Steven Garcia.
Dyer, on the other hand, isn’t getting the number of touches Lattimore gets. But, rather than just under 5 yards per carry like Lattimore, Dyer is getting almost 5 ½ yards. For each touch he gets, he’s producing more yardage.

Auburn seems to be bringing Dyer along a little slower than Lattimore, but as the season rolls on that will certainly change. Also, unlike Lattimore for South Carolina, Dyer is not the leading rusher on his team. Big Cam Newton is.

So what can we glean from all this? Well, let’s just say that Spurrier is Spurrier.

I always liked the analogy that Tommy Tuberville used about Steve Spurrier. He and Spurrier were golfing buddies, and Tuberville would say “if you get Steve on your home course, and just kind of stay close to him…..when you get on the back nine and see that short 335 yard par 4……YOU know that you pull a 3 wood out and just lay it up. But Steve is going to pull out that driver. He can’t help it. He gets impatient. He feels the need to put you away. And many times, when he does, he pushes the ball way out of bounds and opens the door for you to beat him. And he does the same on the football field.”

Moral of the story? Spurrier will try to run the ball using Lattimore. Auburn needs to keep it close. Maybe even get a lead. Spurrier is going to get impatient and put pressure on Garcia to make something happen. And when that pressure comes, Garcia is prone to make mistakes. And THAT will be Auburn’s big opening.

My prediction: Dyer rushes 15 times for 105 yards, Lattimore rushes 25 times for 110 yards and Auburn wins: 21 – 17.

WJLaneSR